Action! PC has made available this nifty free strategy guide for their basketball game, in PDF format.
Action! PC Basketball Strategy Guide
Posted by lukegofannon on November 12, 2009
Posted in Action! PC | Leave a Comment »
Pete Yorn
Posted by lukegofannon on November 10, 2009
Paradise Cove
Posted in Music | Tagged: Pete Yorn | Leave a Comment »
Red Right Ankle. Bodies.
Posted by lukegofannon on October 29, 2009
The Decemberists.
Sex Pistols.
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For those with interest in Second and Ten football league play
Posted by lukegofannon on October 29, 2009
SAT players on the Delphi forum are making a concerted effort to get more folks interested in league play.
♦ Poll: What Type of Online Leagues are You Most Interested In?
AND…
♦ a new forum devoted specifically to SAT Leagues
♦ More.
Posted in Second & Ten (SAT) | Tagged: Second and Ten Football | Leave a Comment »
Thread with Mark Miller’s “rules for winning SAT football”
Posted by lukegofannon on October 29, 2009
This thread was started on Delphi some time ago by Mark Miller, and I’ve already posted/linked to some of his tips contained in it, but I believe there’s some stuff here that hasn’t been linked to in the repository.
Posted in Second & Ten (SAT) | Tagged: Mark Miller, Second and Ten Football | Leave a Comment »
Two-headed boy, Pt. 2
Posted by lukegofannon on October 28, 2009
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Interesting, but depressing, exchange about V10 on Delphi’s Diamond Mind forum
Posted by lukegofannon on October 22, 2009
From: relic52
I don’t play as much these days. I’m feeling that I’ve lost an ownership in a game I’ve adamantly played, analyzed and extensively critiqued in the forums and invested into as a complete customer for many years. I sense no assurance presently about its future development and would have been comforted knowing for a fact that others with a like deep game experience, succinct knowledge of shortcomings, and a passion to make the game outstanding were indeed on board for the testing of v.10. Perhaps others can sound out and give me hope.From: nemodomi2
I requested to be and was admitted into the beta testing for v10. I’ll claim just a bit of depth of game experience, certain succinct knowledge of shortcomings as related to my own particular style of play, and plenty of passion about contributing to making DMB a better game.Unfortunately I discovered that the main thrust of the testing (I regard this as non-non-disclosure stuff, as the public hype about the game directly reflects this info) revolved around two focuses: upgraded PBP text, and the overusage-penalty kludge.
Neither of these features related in any way to my style of using the game. Nevertheless I remained willing to proofread (a professional skill of mine) the PBP text, but was politely informed that the only proofreading desired was that which could be accomplished by playing through PBP games and hand-copying erroneous text as it happened to be revealed in those games. This hit-or-miss approach to making the PBP text as immaculate as possible rubbed against the grain of my addiction to efficiency and thoroughness, as well as suggested to me that the commitment (of those holding the reins on the game) to improving the game as much as possible was sorely lacking.
Nowhere did I see any effort to improve several little annoying non-features of the game, especially as related to creating new databases and importing players into them. A few examples: (1) when changing databases, the choice-screen always defaults/reverts to the agt2 season, instead of to one’s most recent choice; (2) similarly, this happens when importing a player; (3) the Players tab in the Organizer remains unsortable (by column) and with a minimal number of columns shown.
I could go on, but I see little point in doing so.
The only potential bright light at the end of the tunnel that I see is the API, and the brightness of that potential light will apparently depend solely upon the initiative of programmers outside of the DMB industrial complex (and I do mean complex). In that regard, we’ll just have to sit back and wait and see what happens (or doesn’t).
Just my 2 cents.
This gives a new meaning to the refrain from those Zen masters who proclaim, when dismissing the complaints of those of us who’ve expressed frustration with the delays and endless deferrals by DMB, “I can wait for Version 10.” Turns out there’s not much we’re waiting for.
Yeah, I can wait for Version 10, too.
Posted in Diamond Mind, Music | Tagged: Dayne Myers is a dick, Diamond Mind Baseball, Nina Simone, Peggy Lee | Leave a Comment »
More tips on playcalling in Second and Ten Football (from Delphi forum)
Posted by lukegofannon on October 22, 2009
From: MPHopcroft
I just got SAT a little over a month ago and am already getting ready for my first league season. However, I’m very new to the game and am making all kinds of rookie mistakes, which threatens my ability to be competitive.My playcalling is my biggest concern. When I play against the AI it seems to know what I’m doing before I do it, so I don’t know what will work in competition against a human opponent because very little works against the AI. Defense in particular is a struggle. I don’t know how much of calling defense is playing to your strengths and how much is trying to out-guess what your opponent will do (something I’ve always been bad at). I’ve also been having trouble getting substitutions down.
I guess this is a general plea for help, with about a week before I start my first season. I have the 2000 Ravens in a great-teams-of-the-oughts league, a team whose great strength is their uber-talented defense. But I’m not sure what I need to do to force turnovers, stop drives, and do all those things the Ravens excelled at. I expect trouble on offense, as the Ravens quarterbacks are both journeymen.
Any suggestions?
From: ddonovan26
Welcome to SAT. This is a great question, and for me the answer is “it depends”, which I think shows the realism of SAT. You need to consider both your strengths and weaknesses as well as those of your opponent. Sure, there’s a guessing game involved, too, but that has to be balanced with what will likely work and what won’t.The Ravens for instance have a terrific run defense. If I have a highly rated back, I’m still going to attempt to run against you. Even if I stall, I’ll still run once in a while just to make you honor the run. If I have poor-rated backs, I’m less likely to go that route, and will instead try to beat you through the air. If you start playing nickel- and dime-defense too much, though, then that may open a window for my running game. That said, if my backs are truly brutal, I likely won’t gain much on the ground against the Ravens, even if you’re playing a nickel defense. That’s why balance, on both offense and defense, is so critical. Sure you can win with one or the other, but it’s easier when you have options. Hopefully this makes sense and you find it somewhat useful. I guess my point is that there’s no one answer, it depends on both you and your opponent.
Btw, I’m in the CFL also, managing the Raiders. Drop a line if you want to play an exhibition, I’m sure you’ll have a few takers. The more you play vs either AI or H2H, the more comfortable you’ll get calling plays. Good luck.
From: SKI (kostnkost)
I would say play a bunch of exhibition games with the dice rolls turned on. I did this and after playing 3-4 games I generally knew what defense stopped what? Also there is a chart you can look at while playing to see how different defenses play out.It does take time, but the more you play the faster you will get the hang of play calling. Also do not be afraid to ask questions when they come up about the dice roll. I probably asked about 40 or so questions myself when I first started out. Most guys here are friendly and will answer your questions right away.
Enjoy!
From: poniewaz
You might get different answers from different people on this one!In general on defense I tend to play fairly conservatively. I hate to give up the long ball. Thus I call a minimum amount of run defenses on early downs. Most coaches won’t stick with the run game that long anyways. Those great passing numbers of current QBs look too good.
I also frequently double cover the top deep threat on the other team. I am not even that concerned with whether they throw to that guy. I figure all my DC will take the best receiver out of the game. Of course if the opponent has two or three receivers who are all pretty good the penalty for incorrect DC will get you. Start playing more zone or just skip the DC.
Watch out for the guys who can catch the deep ball and guys with the big long gains. A RB with a LG of 5 or 6 can burn you on a screen pass pretty easily. I don’t care if someone completes a screen for 12 yards. It’s the 40 yard play that bothers me.
I also don’t like a lot of tight coverages but….if I’m playing someone who refuses to throw the ball down field (and you’ll see that in league play as those 80 and 90% completion chances on short and MS passes look pretty tempting) I’ll adjust my defensive play calling.
The time to worry more about out-guessing your opponent is 3rd down. I actually saw this on the Strat-O-Matic forum: your job is NOT to stop a given play — your job is to stop a drive.
Careful on blitzes as well. Take a look at the opposing QBs sack chances in the game. No point doing a lot of blitzing (blitzing increases hurry chances) if the main effect of a HUR is likely to be the QB scrambles or merely finds a secondary receiver (but blitzing does reduce completion chances there as well).
Take more chances (blitzes and run defenses and tight coverage) the closer your opponent gets to your goal line. As I said, I don’t like giving up the long play. A lot of games really come down to something pretty simple: touchdowns or FGs?
Oh yeah, if you get out of sync and everything you call is wrong, take a deep breath and call all-purpose for a few plays.
I’ve coached 2000 Baltimore against the AI but never online. The absolute strength of that team is their run defense. It’s one of the best of all time. Teams won’t be able to run consistently against that -6 or whatever it is. When the opponent’s RBs are in the single digits or maybe even mid-single digits, they won’t try to run very much and won’t be all that successful.
I’d call an awful lot of pass-type defenses with that team. Even if I thought the opponent might run I might call an all purpose but with DC and not a run key (except maybe on 3rd and short). Again though one big play action pass against your run D can cover a lot of ground in a hurry. Basically no one is going to run down the field against them. Few coaches will have the patience to even try.
Despite everything I said there will be some great offensive teams in that league and there is only so much you can do to stop a Manning or Brady or Kurt Warner or top-notch passing attack. Then you’ll know how real defensive coordinators feel against those guys. You should try defending great college teams who can do everything well. You almost have to try and out-guess your opponent some time or they’ll move right down the field.
On offense I’m a firm believer in taking some shots down field even if your best receiver has a long pass completion chance of say just 10. heck at least throw ML passes. If not folks will kill you with run defenses, bump and run coverage or even standard man. MS passes don’t go very far with tight coverage/bump an run. You’ll get a lot of 2-4 yard gains.
Oh yeah, it can be a little more likely you’ll out-guess your opponent in the second half after you get a little more information about their play calling. BTW you can look at your opponent’s play calling tendencies from previous games through the SAT roster screen. I wouldn’t spend hours agonizing over that but taking a quick look for a few minutes couldn’t hurt.
Of course others might have a completely different philosophy. General rules don’t always fit certain teams. I really believe it is important to have a general game plan than to worry too much about “out-guessing” your opponent. What do you want to allow and what do you want to stop? I played someone last week and they practically called the same defense the entire game. They were determined to stick to their game plan. Took me half a game to figure out they were going to stick to it. Won the game with about 20 secs left after I decided I needed to develop an offensive strategy to match their game plan. It helped that I had the stronger team and I almost adjusted too late.
I assume you are in Marc’s league? I played in a few of his side projects. Those guys have now played in a lot of leagues and games at this point and that should be a challenge.
Wayne
From: Mark Miller (sanpurdue)
I can give an APC/SAT perspective. First and foremost you have to understand your team strengths and weaknesses. That being said, as Wayne also pointed out, you will want to decide if you are going to be more conservative or aggressive. Obviously, no game plan will work 100% for each game – the score and time left (and your opponent’s team) should cause you to look at adjustments.With APCFB, I developed a spreadsheet to really pull out scouting tendencies which I firmly believe helped me win more games than I would have normally. SAT has this built-in, but I must admit, I don’t use it as much as I used to do so.
If you have a really good defense, like the Ravens, you shouldn’t have to gamble as much, but just calling all-purpose all game will most likely cause you to lose. If your opponent has in the past, or in the current game, calling a lot of play-action passes, then that might tell you to call run keys when you really expect runs. If he likes to run screens and draws a lot, then you might want to back off the blitz and instead call a little more tight pass defense and PK the RB or whomever the screen of choice is.
There aren’t too many automatic calls on defense in SAT – ones that cover your butt in any situation. They all come with the appropriate risk/reward. But….. If you ever see an offense that has only one or two deep threats (receivers with numbers under M, ML or L) and the rest have MS and S routes, then by all means, I would say bring in an extra DB, double both long guys and play bump and run. Not every play, but if it is a passing situation or if you have that feel, do that…. Realize by bringing in an extra DB adds a +5 to RB rating, so don’t do it so much on 3rd and 4th or shorter.
If you find a QB with a low HU rating, like 70-something or below, then blitzing, especially ALL, will really smash a lot of pass plays (unless of course, the screen or S/MS pass is called). If you have a guy in the high 80s, blitzing may be the only way to try to stop the guy, but if the blitz is not successful, you will probably get burned. A scrambling QB or one that has a high secondary rec rating can be devastating when he avoids the sack and makes some sort of play.
Some guys, on offense, like to take a lot of chances deep. Some will tend to throw more underneath, even in 3rd and long. Some will show 1 RB and still draw. Some will show 2 RB, 2 TE and throw.
The one thing I like about SAT and it really helps me on defense, is that I understand that guessing right isn’t going to stop every play cold, but what happens is, when the line “drops” down because of a correct call, then you see, if you look at the dice rolls and the tables, that the 9 yard gain turned into a 4 yard gain. That is huge on 3rd and 8….. Or for that matter, if you can guess right more times than not on first and second downs, you probably will see more 3rd and long situations, or maybe even a 3rd and short situation that would have been a first down after the first two plays because the plays would have gained more.
On defense, I prefer to make the offense call more plays. I don’t want them to score fast – I would rather have the probabilities of penalties and turnovers have more plays to work on. That being said, you don’t have a lot of say in that matter, but if you don’t sell out for the run or pass on every play, I think you have a better chance of not letting the other guy score too quickly.
On defense, take a look at that WRs and their End Around Ratings. You should DC the WR with a good EAR. I believe the correct way to defend against an EAR is by not looking for a run and by DC’ing the receiver.
All things being equal, you want the better team, ratings-wise. But, if you find yourself outgunned, then maybe you go really slow on offense to try and limit the total number of plays on both sides.
Clock management, field position and not forgetting to go for 2 when you just scored to go up by 5 with 2 minutes left (been there, done that) are things to always consider.
Sometimes, no matter how well you are guessing the plays, the results may not go your way. And vice versa. And, you can be bit by the penalty bug or turnover bug. Things even out over time, but don’t expect to blow people out every game and also don’t expect a nail-biter either. Sometimes the game get out of hand and even when the two teams are pretty equal.
Rest your guys on offense. Give the defense an offensive alignment that forces them to guess too often. And then use guys they wouldn’t (or aren’t) guessing :-)
I am not a big fan of the fake FGs or fake punts but you may want to watch for them on defense. Try not to settle for too many FGs. You need the TDs, so don’t go too conservative once you are nearing the goal line (unless all you need is 3 to win the game) :-)
I drafted a defensive team in PVL and I am allowing only 65 yards rushing a game. I can sit back and call more all-purpose or pass defenses because my team stops the run normally. I also drafted DBs that love to pick off the pass, so I would rather have the team throwing the ball more than running :-) My offense is not that great, so I need my defense to win the game for me (which they did last week).
Glad to see you got Wayne to chime in – I think I play him next week or maybe the next :-)
Don’t forget on offense to maybe set up a good ol’ play-action long pass as well. Sometimes, although this doesn’t always work, is follow the defense…. If they just keyed on a RB, run that RB next play. If they just DC’ed your best guy, throw to him next. You might want to have a decent lead just in case you find the guy calling the same defense several times in a row…LOL.
I don’t miss playing APC H2H. I love playing SAT H2H. I actually enjoy playing SAT solo where I hated doing that in APC, except to run a few plays in a scrimmage mode against my upcoming opponent.
I recommend that as well. Play the AI with your upcoming opponent’s team. Don’t worry so much about the results as getting a feel for HUR ratings, overall run ratings and pass completion chances along the scale.
If you call a RUN defense – key someone! That is rule #1. There is no penalty for guessing wrong on a run key. And if the QB is doing a P/A pass, then he was already going to get a bump for the RUN defense call.
Myself, I try to have a different offensive formation on every down early in the game, just to mix things up and get guys some rest. On defense, I tend to shy away from calling the same defense twice and sometimes, especially if you feel you are guessing wrong a lot, simply call an all-purpose once or twice in a row. Or maybe don’t run key or DC as much, if being wrong is benefiting the offense too much.
From: andyhdz
that’s one of the things about defense that gets to me. A lot of the battle has already been drawn up for you. On the offensive side to me it’s just easier to gauge your team because of the ratings and a good play calling is required to win the game. I don’ t know if it’s just me but on defense the effects they have on the offense is already predetermined. It’s not a matter of making the right call but of managing your strengths and weaknesses and the game situation to best use these effects. I think that’s what makes defense hard for a lot of people (including me). It’s just a different type of mentality that is required.From: SoonerBorn59
All,What makes H2H play unique is the variety of coaches you play. Quite frankly some are more predictable than others and some even refuse to change their tendencies for whatever reasons.
Then there are those that present a new challenge every time you play them. The key is knowing your teams strength as well as your opponents strengths. On defense concentrate on taking that away first and foremost and make them beat you another way. This becomes more difficult if your opponent is well balanced but play it as if you was trying to play against yourself and what you would call if you was on the offensive side. You will find out that most coaches are no different than you are.
Be extra careful though on those 3rd and long when on defense and pay special attention to those RB and WR with those 6 LG ratings and higher as so many times your opposition will screen or throw a quick hitch and hope for that roll of 40 or less with you in zone or man which usually results in first down yardage. Your opponents skilled position players LG ratings should be paid attention to throughout the game.
I was Wayne’s opponent in the game he was talking about where he made late adjustments to come from 13-0 down to win. My game plan was simple and no different than you see in real games. I was going to make his team beat me where his weakness was. In the end he won by making those adjustments and making him go to the short game and running the ball. Unfortunately my offense was very limited and I couldn’t counter.
If you play run D always key a back, If you play any type of Pass D always DC at least one receiver.
On offense as I said earlier know your team. Just because you don’t have strong ratings in your backfield don’t abandon the run. Remember a 8 rated runner becomes a 13 using two 2 TE and even if this shows your running your opponent still needs a key roll or bad dice roll to stop you. Remember also if you catch your opponent in Pass D and run your RB has just became 5 points higher in his run rating. A team may be strong against the run but no matter what don’t give up on the running game. a LG RB with a 6-8 LG rating only needs a few 5 and below rolls to loosen up that defense.
In the end call the game like you feel you would if it was really your team. Sometimes when playing H2H you will just get everything go your way and at other times it will seem like that no matter how good of a game you call nothing goes your way.
Think of it as sometimes your team plays great, just ok or they just plain have a crappy day at the office.
Bill
From: poniewaz
There is a nice little PDF in the Help PDFV7 folder in your SAT folder called “Defensive Playcalling Chart.” Take a look as it summarizes a lot of things.There’s one for offensive playcalling as well.
Wayne
Posted in Second & Ten (SAT) | Leave a Comment »
billsportsmaps.com’s 2009 Major League Baseball attendance map
Posted by lukegofannon on October 20, 2009
He notes that attendance was down for 22 of 30 Major League Baseball clubs.
A couple of other recent cool things from Bill:
The Big 12, with 2008 average attendances, and modern helmet history of each team.
The SEC, with 2008 average attendances, and modern helmet history of each team.
Posted in Baseball, Football | Tagged: Baseball, billsportsmaps, Maps | Leave a Comment »
Strat-O-Matic Negro League Set nears release
Posted by lukegofannon on October 15, 2009
From Scott Simkus (Oct. 14, 2009):
According to Steve Barkan at Strat-O-Matic, the highly anticipated Negro League set (and new company web site), is getting very, very close. As in…any day now. So stay tuned.
Posted in Baseball | Tagged: Baseball, Negro Leagues, Scott Simkus, Strat-O-Matic | Leave a Comment »
Beta testing to begin soon for Action! PC’s hockey game.
Posted by lukegofannon on October 14, 2009
Beta testing to begin soon for Action! PC’s hockey game. (I subscribe to the company’s newsletter, but for some reason I didn’t get the email with this announcement.)
Some of the sample screen shots suggest that the game will have an interface somewhere between that of Action’s basketball game and its football game, leaning more toward the basketball game.


I’ve ragged on Action (sometimes mercilessly) quite a bit in the past, while making some exception for the basketball game — which I’ve always believed was well done and the least buggy of the company’s games. However, I’ve recently retried both their baseball game and football game, and have found that neither game is plagued by the old bugs that used to make season replays so frustrating. The football game, in particular, seems to have made big advances in playability and its fun factor (and this is coming from someone who swears by the greatness of Second and Ten’s game).
I now regret some of my snider remarks about Action; for whatever merit I once believed those criticisms to have, I think they have lost much (or most) of their validity when it comes to Action’s games as they are now offered. (I do wish Dave Koch, or someone from the company, would be more of a presence on the company forum. But that’s a different issue.)
I’m not an especially big hockey fan. However, I could learn to be if Action’s hockey comes out of the gate with few playability issues while offering the same sort of “engagement factor” that its basketball game provides.
Posted in Action! PC, Hockey, Sports Sims | Tagged: Action! PC, Dave Koch, Hockey, Sports Simulations | Leave a Comment »
Dinosaur Jr
Posted by lukegofannon on October 14, 2009
“Just Like Heaven” –
Posted in Music | Tagged: Dinosaur Jr | Leave a Comment »
On vacation. Mood: disgusted
Posted by lukegofannon on October 7, 2009
On vacation for a while (longer).
Read that Diamond Mind’s Version 10 is scheduled to be released in December, with the 2009 season disk. We shall see. Yes, we will. Perhaps by then Imagine Sports’ idiot owner, Dayne “Dwindling Cash Flow” Myers, will be completely out of money. I’ve seen some numbers that indicate Dayne’s little vanity project is just scraping by. If he’s the big “lifestyle entrepreneur” he fancies himself to be, why is he so beholden to his investors, whoever the hell they may be? How’s this for a lifestyle: you give me your money, and I use it to mismanage a sports simulation game company, destroying its good name in the process. Future projects: perhaps Imagine Sports will do some kind of deal with Szymborski for DMB’s 2010 projection disk using his ZiPS. If it requires paying him for what his effort is worth, don’t count on it. Dayne doesn’t do that. And Dayne’s attention is focused on his online game for testosterone-addled kids (of all ages) with money to blow. Finally, has anyone’s cup been running over with ideas for this new API thing with DMB? Sigh. Fuck it.
Posted in Diamond Mind, Sports Sims | Tagged: Dan Szymborski, Dayne Myers, Imagine Sports, ZiPS | Leave a Comment »
MGL on sample size and granularity of data
Posted by lukegofannon on August 20, 2009
MGL and Tom Tango have been en fuego lately with good stuff at The Book Blog.
MGL on Smoltz;
I was reading about Smoltz on FanGraphs. He has pitched poorly in 40 IP or so this year. Some people were saying, “That is a small sample size, so it doesn’t mean anything.” IOW, he still might be a good pitcher. Other people responded with something like, “Yeah, but if you WATCHED him pitch, you would see that he was getting hammered, especially by lefty batters.” …
….
Now, putting aside the subjective nature of what it means to get “hammered” what we basically have by observing a pitcher getting hammered is more granular data. With that, our standard error around a pitcher’s true talent in those 40 IP goes down. So basically we are indeed more certain that he is a poor pitcher than we would be if all we knew was that he had an 8.00 ERA in 40 IP.
How much more certain? I don’t know, but I would guess, “Not that much.”
Why is that? Basically because there is “random” fluctuation in a pitcher’s “hammer factor” just as there is random fluctuation in a pitcher’s ERA. A good pitcher may get hammered in any given day or month (3 IP or 50 IP) and a bad pitcher may not.
So basically, the rule is that the more granular your data, the more certainty you have given a certain sample size of that data. But it is only a matter of degree and in most cases the differences are small. What I mean is that the difference in certainty between your assessment of a pitcher from his ERA in 40 IP is not a whole lot less than from whether he got hammered or not in those 40 IP. The reason for that is that the ERA and the “hammer factor” are very dependent variables. If you had granular data that was more independent (of ERA), then the difference in your certainty between one set of data and the other might be greater. IOW, it is pretty likely that a pitcher with a high ERA got hammered, and vice versa. Not 100% likely, but the correlation is high. Keep in mind that there are some levels of data that do NOT have much of an uncertainty factor as compared to other levels of data. For example, let’s say that you used triples rates and other things like SB attempts or bases advanced as a measure of a player’s pure speed. You would recognize that there is going to be sample error and biases (e.g., park effects) with that. But what about if you just measured each guy in the 40 or the 60 with a stopwatch a few times on separate days. While there is going to be some fluctuation and measurement error there, it won’t be much. This level of data is going to give you an answer with MUCH more certainty than the “speed score” stuff….
MGL continues the thought in a related post: “How can we tell if a pitcher is any good?”
… So how do we tell whether a pitcher has good or great stuff. Scouts will say, “Just watch him and see what he throws and look at the movement, velocity, and command.” I say BS! If it were even close to that easy, teams would know who was a good pitcher and who wasn’t, which they clearly don’t.
Why is that? For several reasons: One, the eye cannot see the exact movement of a pitch. Two, the eye cannot see the deceptive element of a pitch, which is important to its effectiveness. Three, the effectiveness of a pitch is partially based on when it is thrown and the other pitches that are thrown and when, and all of that is complicated. Plus, as I keep saying, command is such a critical part of the equation, and one, a scout cannot necessarily quantify command with any precision from watching a pitcher, and two, his command is going to fluctuate a lot from session to session and from game to game.
….
The one problem we are going to run into is the deception. I firmly believe that a big part of any pitch’s effectiveness is its deceptive nature by virtue of the pitcher’s motion and release point which may or may not be able to be observed or measured. If not, we have to rely on the actual effectiveness of each pitch in each location. For example, if the average 91 mph fastball with the same movement as Smoltz in a 2-2 count has a lwts value of zero runs, and Smoltz’s is negative (good for him), then we might infer that he has some deception going for him that is better than the average ML pitcher. Of course, we have to control for how often he throws his other pitches. For example, if the average pitcher throws that same 91 mph fastball 50% of the time in that count and Smoltz throws it 40%, he is probably going to get a better result in that pitch.
So it is a complicated process to be able to evaluate pitchers, and I think we have a long, long way to go as compared to what we (as analysts) and teams (scouts) are going right now, including a combination of the two (scouts and stats). A long way to go. And I think that there will be or there is the potential for great strides in the next 10 years or so, owing in part to the availability of the data like pitch f/x. I also think that when the breakthroughs come, it will likely be in the sabermetric community and that the baseball world – the teams – will lag by 5 years or so (some teams more)…
</blockquote
Posted in Baseball | Tagged: Baseball, Mitchel Lichtman, Sabermetrics, statistics, The Book | Leave a Comment »





